CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-05T21:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-05T21:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29475/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears to have a bright core in initial frames before fading as it progresses throughout the SOHO LASCO C3 field of view. The source is a filament eruption centered around S40E35, but stretches between S25E20 to S55E50 with a southern deflection as it erupts. The eruption begins around 2024-03-06T20:00Z in SDO/AIA and GOES SUVI 304 with associated dimming visible in SDO/AIA 193, brightening in SDO/AIA 304, and minor moving/opening field lines in GOES SUVI 284. A brief post-eruptive arcade is also visible in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 starting around 2024-03-06T00:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-09T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40306 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Mar 2024, 1255UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 013 Coronal mass ejections: ...As well as, a partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 21:24 UTC on Mar 5. It is associated with a filament eruption on SE quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected speed of 520 km/s and a projected width of 138 degree (as measured by Cactus tool), with the bulk of the mass going strongly southward from the Sun-Earth line. Therefore only a glancing blow, associated with this CME, can be expected at the Earth on Mar 09. --------- #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 21:24 UTC and detected by Cactus tool on Mar 5. It is associated with a filament eruption on SE quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected speed of 520 km/s and a projected width of 138 degree (as measured by Cactus tool). Due to the main propagation direction of the CME being strongly southward from the Sun-Earth, the CME-flank encounter is possible but not very probable. The arrival of only the CME-driven shock is more probable at the Earth on Mar 09. #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 56.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-03-06T21:36Z
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